Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.096915 0.108362 0.120239 0.133450 0.147706 0.162595 0.179290
2024-10-20 0.076943 0.093524 0.111757 0.133155 0.157442 0.184014 0.215144
2024-10-27 0.063237 0.082963 0.105809 0.133893 0.167141 0.204909 0.250705
2024-11-03 0.057661 0.080614 0.108353 0.143723 0.186983 0.237533 0.300400
2024-11-10 0.049076 0.073222 0.103679 0.143934 0.194720 0.255655 0.333223
2024-11-17 0.043069 0.068218 0.101188 0.146164 0.204446 0.275956 0.368766
2024-11-24 0.037508 0.063026 0.097762 0.146591 0.211462 0.292704 0.400007
2024-12-01 0.035548 0.062587 0.100487 0.154997 0.228783 0.322600 0.448108
2024-12-08 0.033808 0.062203 0.103102 0.163172 0.245871 0.352452 0.496658
2024-12-15 0.030212 0.058546 0.100672 0.164043 0.252961 0.369297 0.528683
2024-12-22 0.026014 0.053425 0.095632 0.160793 0.254092 0.378111 0.550249
2024-12-29 0.024636 0.052756 0.097143 0.166919 0.268229 0.404356 0.594970
2025-01-05 0.022554 0.050826 0.096808 0.170657 0.279647 0.427938 0.637698
2025-01-12 0.020410 0.048561 0.095803 0.173368 0.289757 0.450123 0.679268
2025-01-19 0.018395 0.046272 0.094561 0.175602 0.299197 0.471584 0.720315
2025-01-26 0.018429 0.047891 0.099871 0.188200 0.324151 0.515071 0.792037
2025-02-02 0.016405 0.045187 0.097636 0.188719 0.331137 0.533490 0.829755
2025-02-09 0.014963 0.043462 0.096922 0.191557 0.341576 0.556892 0.874631
2025-02-16 0.013352 0.041134 0.094926 0.192127 0.348482 0.575286 0.912755
2025-02-23 0.013184 0.041978 0.098717 0.202402 0.370509 0.615756 0.982280
2025-03-02 0.012976 0.042695 0.102277 0.212359 0.392209 0.656040 1.052016
2025-03-09 0.011729 0.040777 0.100702 0.213421 0.399883 0.675853 1.092884
2025-03-16 0.010067 0.037563 0.096369 0.209472 0.399440 0.683654 1.116693